Abstract

This paper first evaluates the volatility modeling in the Bitcoin market in terms of its realized volatility, which is considered to be a reliable proxy of its true volatility. First, we empirically study the accuracy of a variety of estimators of RV based on Liu et al. (2015). Then, we empirically show that (1) the asymmetric volatility models such as EGARCH and APARCH have a higher predictability, and (2) the volatility model with normal distribution performs better than the fat-tailed distribution such as skewed t distribution.