Abstract

Study of the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes as the world warms is of utmost importance, especially separating the influence of natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Record-breaking temperature and precipitation events were studied using event-attribution techniques. Here, we provide spatial and temporal observation-based analyses of the role of natural and anthropogenic factors, using state-of-the-art time series methods. We show that the risk from extreme temperature and rainfall events has severely increased for most regions worldwide. We also identify risk hotspots defined as regions for which increased risk of extreme events and high exposure in terms of either high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or large population are both present. For the year 2018, increased anthropogenic forcings are mostly responsible for increased risk to extreme temperature/precipitation affecting 94%/72% of global population and 97%/76% of global GDP relative to the baseline period 1961-1990.